The Best-Month Matrix: 7 Destinations × 12 Months, 10 Years of Climate Data
We took the 2015–2024 monthly climate averages behind our destination guides — measured at each destination's primary city, from Cairo to Seoul — and ran every one of the 84 destination-month combinations through the same deterministic comfort formula. This page is the result: one matrix that answers "which destination, which month?" with data instead of brochure copy.
The headline finding: only 13 of 84 destination-months (15%) rate "ideal — go now". 54 (64%) are at least comfortable, 30 demand planning around heat, cold or rain, and not a single primary-city month rates "avoid" outright. And in no calendar month are all 7 destinations comfortable at once — the best any month manages is 5 of 7 (February, March, June, September, October, November).
13
Ideal — go now
41
Good — comfortable
30
Shoulder — plan around heat, cold or rain
0
Avoid — too hot
The matrix: every destination, every month
Each cell shows the primary city's average daytime high (°C), coloured by its verdict. Click any cell for that month's full guide — real temperatures, costs and holidays.
Each destination's sweet spot
The three best-ranked months per destination — "ideal" first, ties broken by less rain, then milder heat.
Egypt (Cairo)
Jordan (Amman)
Georgia (Tbilisi)
Kenya (Nairobi)
Azerbaijan (Baku)
Methodology
Data. For each destination we use its primary (gateway) city at real coordinates — Cairo, Amman, Tbilisi, Denpasar, Nairobi, Seoul and Baku — and take 10-year monthly averages (2015–2024) of daytime high, overnight low and days with measurable rain, from public climate archives. Long-run averages, not forecasts: an unusual year can and will deviate.
Verdicts. Every one of the 84 cells is scored by the same deterministic rules, applied in order: average highs of 40°C or more rate avoid; 36°C and above (below the 40°C cutoff) rate shoulder ("mornings only"); highs of 6°C or below rate shoulder (cold); 12+ rainy days rates shoulder (wet season); highs of 20–30°C with at most 6 rainy days rate ideal; months with highs of 14–35°C rate good; and the remaining cool months (just above 6°C) also rate good, labelled "bring layers". No hand-tuning per destination — which is why a rainy tropical coast can score "worse" than a mild desert winter.
Limits. One city stands in for each destination, so mountain, coastal and desert regions within the same country will differ — our per-city weather pages cover those. Rain days count any day with measurable precipitation, which overstates how disruptive brief tropical showers feel. Verdict thresholds are opinionated (tuned for sightseeing comfort), but applied identically everywhere.
How to cite this study
Journalists, bloggers and researchers are welcome to reuse any figure, verdict or the matrix itself with attribution. Please cite it as:
“The Best-Month Matrix: 7 Destinations, 10 Years of Climate Data”, Trolly Good Fellow, 2026
…and link to trollygoodfellow.com/best-time-to-visit/data-study so your readers always see the current dataset.
Best-Month Matrix — FAQs
What is the overall best month to travel, according to the data?
There isn't one — and that is the study's headline finding. In no single calendar month do all 7 destinations rate comfortable at once. The best coverage is 5 of 7 destinations, reached in February, March, June, September, October, November. The practical takeaway: pick the destination to fit your travel month, not the other way around — the matrix above shows exactly which pairings work.
Which destination has the most "ideal" months?
Jordan (measured at Amman) leads the matrix with 5 "ideal" months out of 12 — its top three are June, September, October. Across all 7 destinations, only 13 of 84 destination-months (15%) earn the "ideal" rating.
How are the ideal / good / shoulder / avoid verdicts calculated?
Deterministically, from two numbers per city per month: the 10-year average daytime high and the average count of rainy days. A month rates "ideal" only when highs sit between 20–30°C with 6 or fewer rainy days. Highs of 40°C or more rate "avoid"; 36°C and up, 6°C or below, or 12+ rainy days rate "shoulder"; everything else rates "good" — including cool months just above the 6°C cutoff, which carry a "bring layers" label. The same formula is applied to every destination — no editorial thumb on the scale.
Why does Bali rarely rate "ideal" in this matrix?
Rain-day counting. In the 2015–2024 dataset, Denpasar records 17–28 days with measurable rain every single month — and any month with 12+ rainy days is flagged "shoulder: plan around rain". In the tropics, many of those are short afternoon showers, not washed-out days. So read a Bali "shoulder" cell as "pack for rain and plan flexible mornings", not "don't go".
Where does the climate data come from, and can I reuse it?
Each cell is a 10-year monthly average (2015–2024) computed for the destination's primary city at its real coordinates — for example Cairo for Egypt and Amman for Jordan — from public climate archives, re-generated periodically so figures stay current. It describes long-run averages, not a live forecast. Yes — journalists, bloggers and researchers may reuse any figure with attribution and a link (see "How to cite" above).